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A good reason why is that, according to research
by Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, consumer spending represents 71%
of America’s gross domestic product. The figure is 42% for China and
55% for Japan.
Speaking of Japan, the aftermath of the financial
bubble has obscured the fact that it too, remains an exporting
powerhouse, despite a currency that has risen more than 20% since
2002 and 13% this year alone. Just look at Japan’s current account
surpluses over the past three years: $113 billion in 2002, $136
billion in 2003 and $172 billion in 2004. China is a major market,
and despite political difficulties, bilateral trade between China
and Japan now exceeds trade between Japan and America.
A majority of Japan’s exports are manufactured
goods and components. Fifty percent of its exports to China in 2004
were electrical equipment and machinery, and its top exports to the
world include autos, electronic components, optical instruments,
imaging equipment and computer parts.
Much is made over China’s huge trade imbalance
with America, which reached $126 billion in the first eight months
of this year. No doubt a sizable share of Chinese exports to America
are chock full of Japanese components. While some of these
components were made in offshore facilities, many were made in
Japan, which has been able to hold on to its industrial base better
than America.
How do they do it? First, the Japanese are
continually moving up the value-added curve and are careful to keep
the R&D and manufacturing of sophisticated components close to home,
while outsourcing the low-end to low-wage countries.
Secondly, even though China’s wages are about 5%
of Japan’s, factory automation has lessened the importance of labor
costs. For advanced high tech products, it accounts for only 10% to
15% of total costs. Having manufacturing closer to home also
shortens new product lead times and increases cooperation between
R&D and production teams leading to a crucial edge in staying ahead
of its nimble competitors. Supply lines of 2,000 miles can be
problematic.
Perhaps most important, there is the critical
issue of protecting intellectual capital. Having research,
development and production closer to headquarters better protects
proprietary technologies.
Canon, Sharp, Hitachi, NEC and Toyota are all
good plays on Japan’s manufacturing edge, while Sony will continue
to lag until it boosts its R&D and catches up in product
development.
The iShares MSCI Japan Index exchange-trade fund
is an attractive option, since it has about 50% exposure to Japan’s
manufacturing sector with an annual expense ratio of only 0.59%.
Similarly in Germany, the iShares MSCI Germany Index is loaded with
that country’s top exporters and would be an excellent proxy for
overall German export growth.
Carl Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm
Chartwell Partners and editor of the the "Asia-Pacific Growth"
newsletter. He served on the executive board of the Asian
Development Bank and is the author of "The New Global Investor." For
more information go to
http://www.chartwellasia.com/ or
call 877-221-1496. |